10.31.06: Day to Portend
Today is Halloween and many still dress in costumes. This Fall Celtic Festival can be traced back over two thousand years. Apparently, Celts hoped that by dressing in ghoulish garb on the eve of their New Year certain evil spirits could be warded off. Here, by wearing costumes, we hope to scare our neighbors into giving us free stuff. It is a day to pretend.
Allow us to pretend to be a pundit, a political prattler, a prognosticator of pith. Today CitizenU would really like to portend. We want to foreshadow. We want to foretell the outcome of next week’s important midterm election. Today we will pick the winners.
In our estimation, one race may indicate the outcome for both parties. That race can be found in Tennessee. The Senate seat is open due to the lame duck status of Republican Majority Leader Dr. Bill Frist. He has hopes of dressing up as President. Harold Ford, Jr., Democratic candidate, has hopes of becoming the first black Senator from a Southern state since Reconstruction. Republican Bob Corker hopes to deny Ford this distinction.
The race is close, too close for most to call. Ford, currently a member of the House, comes from a wealthy Memphis family. Strangely, the Ford money was made the old fashioned way, in politics. The Ford “political machine” has governed Memphis for years. Corruption and sleaze seem to follow the family. Why would a conservative state, like Tennessee, even consider such a sibling?
Harold Ford, Jr. praises Ronald Reagan. Harold Ford, Jr. voted for the Patriot Act and the war in Iraq. Harold Ford, Jr. hopes for a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced federal budget. Harold Ford, Jr. thanks Jesus in public. He closes his campaign stops with prayer. Looks like Harold Ford, Jr. might be pretending.
This is why we would like to portend a Corker victory. This victory will also echo throughout the evening of November 7th. This election will indeed be a real corker. In the end, Democrats in unfamiliar costumes will be exposed for what they really are – wolves in sheep’s clothing. Republicans hold on to both House and Senate.
Then again, this is a day to pretend.
Bob Corker for Senate..
Harold Ford, Jr. for Senate..
posted by CitizenU @ 8:11 AM
7 comments
7 Comments:
I hope we dont pick the winners by choosing who has the best halloween costume.
I hope we dont pick the winners by choosing who has the best halloween costume.
Thanks for going out on the limb with the prediction. My play acting as a political pundit has the Democrats picking up 18 house seats and taking control of the house and picking up 4 senate seats, leaving the senate 52-48 with the Republicans. We'll see next Wednesday morning. In the meantime I encourage all to post their predictions before playing Wednesday morning quarterback next week.
So it’s been about a year since I’ve posted on the site, but my U.S. Congress class at the U of Chicago has encouraged me to check in…Maybe regularly.
Harold Ford might lose in Tennessee, but it’s not because he is a pretender (Democrats held House majorities for 50 years and they had Southern Democratic “pretenders” to thank). The NRC’s newest attack ad featuring a white blonde woman flirting with Ford is this year’s Willie Horton advertisement. I think it will probably work. If there is one thing that will increase conservative turnout in the south, it’s a threatening black man. That does not mean its lights out for the Democrats. They can still win Virginia and Missouri in order to carry the Senate. I think the House is an even bigger lock for the Democrats, though. Sure, given the focus of elections in the U.S. on individuals rather than parties, it’s unclear whether or not individual candidates can capitalize on the general discontent of voters with Republicans. However, it has been shown that potential quality challengers are more likely to make the decision to run if national indicators point to their party, and this has a direct effect on elections. If I was an experienced GOP state senator who has a good chance of taking down an incumbent, I would wait a few years to run for congress given my party’s lack of popularity now. The upshot, I’m chilling my champagne and expect to uncork it on November 7th to toast the first Democratic Congress since 1994.
-Hal Gordon
SHS '05
U of Chicago '09
hgordon5@uchicago.edu
Hal, have you no respect for the people of Tennessee? Poll results (whatever that means) has ford gaining 3 extra points after the release of Corker's ad. I think Corker went too negative, and the people picked up on it. Corker's negativity may have back-fired. As for predictions, I originally had Dems getting both houses, but I think Kerry's recent slip may have been a bigger blow than it seems, depending on the proportion it is blown into by conservative media. If this can become mainstream news, the Dems may have blown the Senate.
i concur with didech.
Diebold.......
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